Thursday, January 19, 2017

The euro loses against the dollar – the world of Business

Europaräntorna step while the euro weakened on Thursday, when the ECB left interest rates and QE program unchanged and ECB president Mario Draghi did not given any more hawkish signals at a press briefing. The euro dropped below 1:06 against the dollar.

the German ten-step after closing on Wednesday and saw the small net changes during the Thursday, at the Swedish closure was standing at 0.38%.

ECB president Mario Draghi said at his press conference that the council had not discussed any decreased stimulus and to make it clearer that policyhållningen is successful.

He said that inflation has increased recently, due to rising energy prices, and is expected to rise further in the short term. At the same time, underlying inflationary pressures in the euro area remain contained and there are no convincing uppåttrend. The risks to growth is also continuing on the downside.

the Rasmus Gudum Sessingsö at Handelsbanken, writes in a comment that the ECB-announcement, as expected, was very uneventful and contained very little new information.

“the ECB confirmed that it is ready to expand/extend QE if the outlook deteriorates. The market was expecting probably a more hökaktigt message because the euro weakened slightly after the press conference with ECB president Mario Draghi,” he wrote.

Mario Draghi stressed that the ECB does not see any compelling uppåttrend in core inflation, “if anything, we noticed a few changes in the wording around the economic analysis,” wrote Rasmus Gudum Sessingsö.

He wrote further that Mario Draghi confirmed his view that it is too early to start speculating about a tightening of monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Holger Sandte at Nordea wrote that they saw no concessions to the hawks on Thursday, “nice increased criticism from Germany”.

“the ECB’s introductory statement reflected the increasing recovery of the economy and the recent rise in inflation,” he wrote.

Holger Sandte also wrote that he expects that tapering (nedtrappade asset purchases) would become a theme forward in the second half, “until then, we expect a steeper curve, especially since the ECB is now starting to buy under the depositräntan”.

Thursday’s statements changes nothing for Nordea’s view on the ECB, “we expect that the next reduction of tillgångsköpprogrammet will be advertised in the autumn of this year and enter into force in January 2018. In our baseline scenario will tillgångsköpen stop in the summer of 2018,” wrote Holger Sandte.

Nordea expects nor with any interest rate changes before 2018, the year-end.

IN the united states came on Thursday, the index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

the Index rose at 23.6 in January from 19.7 in december. Clearly, over waited for 15.3, according to Bloomberg News analytikerenkät. It was also the highest quotation since november, 2014.

the Number of new unemployed in the US during week two declined by 15,000 people to 234.000 persons.

It meant that the new unemployed has been below 300,000 during the 98 consecutive weeks, the longest period since the 1970s, and according to many economists as an indicator of a healthy job market.

the Average for the last four weeks, fell to 246.750, which was the lowest since 1973.

Economists at RDQ Economics wrote in a comment that they don’t see any evidence that the trend in job creation has been turned around during the start of 2017 and the track number of employed persons increases with the 175,000 in January, “which is the rate we believe is sustainable for the 2017 as a whole”.

construction of Housing in the U.S. rose 11.3 per cent in december compared with the month before. Analysts had expected an increase of 8.9 percent, according to Bloomberg News snittprognos.

RDQ Economics noted that the byggstarterna for single family homes is down over the last two months, but they believe that uppåttrenden in the longer term is still intact, while the byggstarterna for multifamily has passed its peak.

American ten had on Thursday has risen 12 points since Thursday’s Swedish closure, to 2.48 percent.

the Dollar rose at the same time and traded around 115:40 against the yen.

Swedish interest rates rose 1 to 4 points while the Swedish krona dropped 10 penny to 9:02 against the dollar and 3 pennies to the 9:56 against the euro.


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