SHB: the Unemployment rate will increase in Sweden, the Business community

The Swedish growth will end up close to the underlying trend in the coming years, in which households remain the main driving force. It writes Handelsbanken in a macroeconomic forecast on Tuesday.

Handelsbanken forecasts that GDP in Sweden is increasing by 3.2 per cent this year, 2.3 per cent next year and 2.1 per cent in 2018.

In the previous forecast was predicted to 3.0, 2.2 and 2.1 per cent.

Handelsbanken notes that employment growth is slowing down and that the unemployment rate will rise slightly. The recent years of high asylinvandring and problems with the integration points that we will see a growing imbalance between vacancies and job seekers.

“The high rate of unemployment for asylinvandrare and low-skilled workers will be one of the main challenges for economic policy in the years to come,” writes Handelsbanken.

Despite continuing many of the unemployed assesses that the economy is not far from capacity limits.

rising Inflation is likely in pace with cost pressures. The bank’s forecast is that inflation is approaching the Riksbank’s 2 per cent target at the end of the 2018.

“Against this backdrop, we believe that a first rate hike of 25 basis points from the Riksbank at the end of 2017. At the end of 2018 should the key interest rate remain at 0.50 per cent in our opinion. Thus we see potential for a gradual strengthening of the krona against the euro in the future,” writes Handelsbanken.