Municipalities, county councils and regions are facing tough economic challenges in the future when the demographic change becomes tangible, while the costs increase more than revenues. Large tax increases threatening if nothing is done. It writes Sweden’s Municipalities and County councils in Ekonomirapporten which was presented on Wednesday.
“the Government’s injection of 10 billion is welcome, but in order to meet the challenges required that the state provide better bases for planning. We need to continue to develop and improve the efficiency of its own activities within the municipalities, county councils and regions”, says Lena Micko, president of the Swedish association of local authorities and regions (SALAR).
in 2020 the estimated costs exceed revenues, with 47 billion if nothing is done.
IN the SALAR’s calculus is adopted to the general purpose local government grants increase by 2 percent in real terms per year in 2018-2020. Together with the increase of 10 billion kronor in 2016, would the level of the general local government grants thus be 28 billion higher in 2020.
in Addition, SALAR’s calculations performance improvement measures of 47 billion sek, which corresponds to tax increases of 2.10 skattekronor in addition to the increase in 2016 with a 12-penny.
“This would have an impact on real household income. However, it is not likely with tax increases of that magnitude. Rather, there is a combination of different measures, where efficiency improvements are an important component,” writes the SALAR.
Lena Micko calls for efforts from the state, which must review its micro-management. It makes it more difficult in the day a long-term planning and increases, in some cases, also the costs.
“for the same reason, it is also important to go over to the more general instead of targeted central government grants to local authorities to be able to conduct an effective business,” she says and adds that the local government grants need to be increased in the coming years to meet the costs.
the SALAR would also like to see more action from the government to newly-arrived quickly will be able to get to work and more places on the teacher training programme. There is also a need for more training for temporary employees in elderly care and health care.
According to the SALAR have in the future significant increase of the demographic pressure, which previously was expected to come after 2020, brought forward by the rapidly growing population.
It has been mainly with the historically large flyktinginvandringen to do, but is also a result of the increased birth rate. The number of births has increased steadily since the bottenåret 1999 and is expected in a few years exceed the record set in 1990.
the Number of children and pupils in pre-school, primary and secondary schools is expected to increase by approximately 230.000 up to 2020, to 2.2 million. In addition, the increase in 0-1-year-olds, which primarily affect the health and child welfare. The strong population growth up to 2020, a total of about 650,000, affects in addition to the school a range of other activities; health and health care, public transport, social services, housing, civil protection, cultural and technical activities.
“A bit into the 2020s worsen the situation further then the increase in the number of elderly people shoots up speed,” writes the SALAR, in the report.
the SALAR notes that the relatively high growth in the Swedish economy, with a rapid increase of the number of hours worked, have given good boost to the tax base in real terms in recent years.
“The trend continues for some time, but is attenuated already in the next year when the economy enters a calmer phase with less employment growth. In the year and next year, strengthening the tax base, moreover, by additional increases of pensions”, writes the SALAR.
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