In the latest forecast, in April, counted ESV with a budget balance of +19 billion this year, -3 billion in 2017 and + 15 billion in 2018. The scope for reform is thus limited next year.
Debt Office counted in its forecast June 15 with a budget balance of +41 billion in 2016 and -42 billion in 2017.
ESV notes that tax revenue is increasing rapidly in the year due to tax increases of 36 billion and the strong growth of the economy. Next year revenues slower then growth slows down.
While spending increased a lot this year and next year. This year it is especially spending on migration is rising due to the large number of asylum seekers at the end of last year. Next year, it is mainly the announced increase in central government grants to municipalities that increases spending. It also increases the EU contribution and international assistance is relatively much because they are temporarily low this year.
The financial balance improved from 2018 but the surplus target is not reached during the forecast period. Ceilings are cleared every year.
“However, the margin to the ceiling low in 2017, taking into account the need for safety margin. Therefore, there is only a limited space for new decisions on spending increases,” writes ESV.
in the morning, Friday, meeting EU finance ministers in Luxembourg to agree on rules that will hamper corporate tax evasion. Sweden’s Magdalena Andersson (S) will attend the meeting.