Saturday, August 9, 2014

Interest rates and currencies: The krona strengthened – Dagens Industri

Interest rates and currencies: The krona strengthened – Dagens Industri


       
   
 
       
           
   
     
 
         
 
       The euro weakened slightly against the dollar in late European trading on Thursday, having earlier shown a notable resistance to a double blow in the form of new soft signals from the ECB and strong social signals from the United States. European government bond rates traded while slightly lower than on Wednesday.
     

ECB assesses simultaneously that the risks to inflation are limited and broadly balanced, but it agreed to use unconventional measures if necessary, and work to prepare for asset purchases have intensified.

ECB president further said to work to prepare a program of ABS-purchase (ABS, private securities backed by assets) with the assumption that the program will be implemented, although no final decision has been taken.

Mario Draghi said that the fundamentals for a weaker euro exchange rate now is much better than before, and he noted that it has been labeled a clear increase in short euro positions among investors. Mario Draghi stated that the market has realized that monetary policy in the United States and the euro zone will vary over a long time to come.

Earlier on Thursday was informed that German industrial production was unexpectedly weak in June. Compared with June 2013, production fell 0.5 percent against expected +0.3 percent, according to Bloomberg News survey. On Wednesday, got told that even the German Factory Orders were unexpectedly weak in June, Finance Ministry wrote in a comment that geopolitical risks were behind the collapse.

Finance Ministry referred to the geopolitical events even for the slowdown in industrial production during the second quarter. But for the most part, this should be dependent on a mild winter, which lifted production in the first quarter.

The economists at Commerzbank noted in a letter to customers that the German economy appears to have suffered a “summer flu”. They estimate that industry statistics indicate that German GDP may have fallen 0.1 percent in the second quarter, and warns of downside risk even to the forecast.

Regarding consequences of sanctions against Russia said Finance Minister Anders Borg on Thursday that the Swedish part is expected to be “relatively small”, but that the effects of Russia’s large, including in the form of reduced investment.

The Finance Minister, who participated the government’s summer refreshments, said that the Swedish economy has been unusually weak in early 2014, but the forward looking indicators suggest an improvement.

“The outcomes speak for a slightly weaker development at the beginning of this year. Meanwhile, we have received some forward-looking indicators of particularly the industrial side to suggest that it still takes a certain appreciation, “he said.

Unexpectedly weak outcomes in European industrial data for June raises questions facing the recovery that analysts are waiting in SCB’s Swedish industry data for June. Norway could, however, on Thursday morning, reporting an unexpectedly strong performance of the manufacturing sector in June, +1.7 per cent in May and +3.1 percent compared with June 2013, according to Bloomberg News forecast was expected to only +0.3 per cent in May .

Swedish government bond yields fell 2-5 points on Thursday, the ten-year rate down 5 basis points to 1.62 percent, and the interest rate gap against the German equivalent fell to 53 basis points (57).

The euro weakened over 2 cents against the crown, to 9.22, while the dollar fell more than 1 cent to 6.91. TCW index fell to 124.83 (125.13).

Statistics announced on morning to Swedish house prices rose 3 percent in the three months to July, compared with the previous three months. Compared with the corresponding period of 2013, prices rose 6 percent.

The trend for house prices now appears to be rising since this spring, earlier, house prices have been weaker than housing prices. SCB’s statistics show, however, not condominium prices.

Debt Office announced further that the state’s payments showed a deficit of 3.8 billion in July, which was 8.2 billion better than Debt own forecast. Tax revenue was about 4 billion higher than expected, Iceland closed out an outstanding loan of around 1.9 billion, and payments from a number of agencies was lower than expected.

This was the third consecutive month that tax revenue was higher than the Debt Office’s forecast, and after Debt latest forecast in June, the net borrowing requirement totally been SEK 13.8 billion lower than expected (in June and July).

American government bond rates rose weak after the Swedish market close on Wednesday, but the upturn were dug out on Thursday, despite recent positive signals from the labor market. When the Swedish market closed on Thursday noted ten-year rate unchanged at 2.45 percent.

U.S. data on Thursday showed that the number of newly registered unemployed persons was 289,000 last week, down from 303,000 weeks before. It was well below the 304,000 that was expected according to Bloomberg News forecast survey and the lowest weekly figure since February 2006.

Several US-economists noted to weekly data now suggest that employment growth should now be able to switch up from an already fairly high rate, and that the unemployment rate can go down again after a slight increase, due to more people in the labor force, in July.

“In our opinion seems it is increasingly likely that the FOMC meeting on September 17 will mark a shift in the Fed’s policy guidance, as these data suggest that the momentum in the labor market in early August was strong, “wrote RDQ Economics in a client letter.

During the night on Friday Australia Dollar weakened substantially after data showed an unexpectedly high unemployment in July, 6.4 percent, its highest level since 2002, expectations were that it would remain at 6.0 percent from June, according to Bloomberg News survey.

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