Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Interest rates and currencies: Stronger crown after CPI Relief – Dagens Industri

Interest rates and currencies: Stronger crown after CPI Relief – Dagens Industri

Reductions of shoes packages, fuel and equipment also affected downwards by 0.1 percentage point each.

The decline was offset by increased rents and price increases Wine and vegetables, which went up 0.1 percentage points each.

January implies a new calculation of the basket, which creates uncertainty about the outcome, but this time was “shopping cart” effect zero According to Statistics Sweden.

CPIF inflation (CPI fixed rate) rose to 0.6 percent in January from 0.5 percent in December, waited was 0.5 percent according to SME and the Riksbank.

Riksbank indicated by the last monetary policy meeting, when they cut the repo rate to -0.10 percent and decided to start buying government bonds, they are ready to do more if inflation (and inflation expectations) continues to come in lower than expected. The next major stop will be the TNS Prospera wide inflation questionnaire (even among social partners) on 11 March.

Anders Brunstedt the Handelsbanken, told the News Agency Direkt CPI outcome was “unexciting”, which probably also was exactly what the Riksbank wanted. The outcome was a little higher than the Riksbank’s forecasts and there were no major discrepancies in any subgroup. January CPI reduces the likelihood anything for further easing by the Riksbank.

“Had it instead got into a pair of three-tenths on the downside it would have been difficult for the Riksbank to not deliver at next meeting. Now it’s more open, more 50-50. The decisive factor will be the next outcome in inflation expectations Prospera of the social partners, in March, which I think Riksbank watching a lot, “says Anders Brunstedt.

Handelsbanken expects that inflation is now on the way up. Gasoline prices have been turned upside given the recent depreciation of the krona is it just a matter of time before there’s an inflationary impulse from import prices. In addition, services inflation turned up.

Swedish interest rates traded 1-2 points up, and is about 3-4 points higher than before the CPI outcome. Europe rates show relatively small movements, with German rates sideways and Spanish interest rates slightly up. Greek interest rates rise, however, significantly.

The crown has after CPI strengthened around 4 cents against the dollar and equal to 9:51 against the euro. The krona has strengthened gradually since the Riksbank slips and almost all of the krona’s depreciation against the euro is now gone. Measured as the TCW index is the “crown” effect remained approximately -0.6 percent, from having been over 2 percent initially.

Meanwhile, the euro strengthened to 1: 137 against dollar during the morning, from 1: 132 lowest, while the dollar dropped to 118: 70 against the yen.

Eurogroup meeting was canceled early Monday evening without any agreement on Greece’s debt problems after Greece rejected a demand from other euro countries to the country requesting a six-month extension of the current support program.

Chairman of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that the ball is now in Greece and that par0074erna this week to .

The Greek Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis said for its part that he expects to Greece and other euro countries can find a compromise in the end.

” Without a doubt within 48 hours to find a wording that comes around deadlock and can go forward to an arrangement that is good for Greece and Europe, “he said.

But he said that it was up to the Eurogroup to take the initiative – even though the President of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the opposite, that the ball is in Greece.

During the morning, expected British CPI and German ZEW index.

Tuesday at 10:20 (Monday at 16:15)

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USD / SEK 8: 3784 (8: 3872) Statsobl 2y -0.33 (-0.34)

EUR / USD 9: 5294 (9: 5690) Statsobl 10y 0.49 (0.50)

EUR / USD 1: 1374 (1: 1409) yield gap / GER 15 (16)

US obl 10y 2.03 ( 2.05) German obl 10y 0.34 (0.34)

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