Again ticking clock for Greece, again stands Athens with his back against the wall and will again unclear and often contradictory statement from the Greek line. It’s nothing new, but rather as a raspy old gramophone record stuck in a groove.
But this time it looks bleaker than ever. The Greeks both tax strike, and lift out billions from the banks while the Greek state raiding – officially borrow – the social security system in order to pay salaries and pensions.
Sooner or later take the money out. Many believe that it can happen as early as 9 April, when Greece must repay a loan of EUR 450 million to the International Monetary Fund. The Orthodox Greek Easter weekend starting April 10 means that the banks are closed for four days, a perfect opportunity to introduce capital controls if required.
Cyprus did it 2013. Then coiled length queues in front of ATMs where outlets were limited. Border controls were tightened and financing of import and export business hard reviewed. Today, two years later, parts of restrictions still in force, while others have been abolished. The road back to normalcy therefore risks becoming long.
It is unclear whether Greece is in the same acute forced position. Two months after the election, no one seems to know exactly how the public finances looks. Representatives of the IMF, the ECB and the EU as the other day was in Athens had to travel back home with empty hands.
Excluded can not Alexis Tsipras paints a drastic horror scenario to put pressure on the finance ministers of the euro group that determines whether, and if so when, Greece can count on the support of 7.2 billion euros that is left from the 2012 crisis program.
Would this be Tsipras calculus, it has already ruptured. The Eurogroup is more determined than ever not to pay out a single euro until Greece started to translate reforms.
This is where the big challenge for the left-wing leader Tsipras is. Or as former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras mocked in Monday’s parliamentary debate: “Tsipras thought that he would get the money without conditions. Instead, he received condition with no money. “
Reform list Eurogroup has been waiting for weeks and now there is still unclear. It consists primarily expected revenues through tighter fiscal controls and recovery of tax debts – amounts to just hope for.
Tsipras know probably is not enough. In contrast, he does not know how he will back down from its election promise to break with the austerity policy and the old government’s reform promises. The question is, in other words, is he tough enough to confront the strong left wing of SYRIZA and risk the government collapses? Or he plans to go over with flying colors and indomitable will to resist?
he chooses confrontation, he should do it in a hurry, His popularity is still strong but has begun to fall, it would be an election today would SYRIZA according to the latest measurements get more than 40 percent of the votes – more than in the last election and perhaps enough that after a new election to make itself of the ultra-left, which today is a party in the party.
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