Strong US should lead the way in 2015 – Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet

Strong US should lead the way in 2015 – Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet

– Generally speaking, we must turn down expectations for growth. But what is the driving force for the economy in 2015, the US economy, which we expect to grow by 3.5 per cent, but also in oil prices, which can provide a growth injection, says Robert Bergqvist, chief economist at SEB.

The United States is heading back to his feet, with good growth and increased employment. But in the euro zone will take the worries remain, and 2015 begins with a new election in Greece. Tor Berg, chief economist at SBAB, think very well that growth within the zone, EMU can dip this year.

– Inflation is so very low, and you get a little worse growth, it may well be that fall into a deflationary spiral, which can be difficult to get out, he said.

Neither Robert Bergqvist is very optimistic about Europe, where high unemployment, particularly for young people, has become entrenched in many countries.

– The growth we will see will not be sufficient to reduce unemployment, he said.

The growth we will see will not be sufficient to reduce unemployment

Robert Bergqvist

Asian economies account for around 40 percent of the global, and economists will continue watching China, which in some way to figure overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s challenge is to get to a balanced economic development, according to Robert Bergqvist. The country tries to adjust its economy, which today is too dependent on exports to more domestic consumption.

– You should probably have a positive outlook on China, but one should be aware that it will occur setback in economy. China has a property market that it shakes a bit around and we have seen deceleration in the economy, which strains the banking system, he said.

The central banks will play a starring role, as both Bergqvist and Berg. Japan, China, Switzerland, EMU and, not least, Sweden is close to expanded monetary stimulus.

– Many central banks have said that zero interest rates are not sufficient to bring inflation up to around two percent. And several, including the Riksbank, still playing with the idea of ​​introducing negative interest rates. It is an almost unique situation, says Robert Bergqvist.