Thursday, January 22, 2015

Interest rates and currencies: Draghi’s hand lowers the euro – Dagens Industri

Interest rates and currencies: Draghi's hand lowers the euro – Dagens Industri

According to ECB president will asset purchases to anchor inflation expectations, improve household financing capacity, strengthening demand, improve capacity utilization, increase the money supply and collectively strengthen growth.

QE program will be combined with additional requirements on countries to support programs and only 20 percent of the purchases to be made with risk sharing, the remaining 80 percent must be done with risk remains with the national central banks of the euro zone.

At press conference, ECB president also that incoming data confirm a moderate growth ahead in the euro area, but that the risk is still on the downside and inflation is predicted to be low or negative in the coming months.

He said it because of the price of oil is inevitable that inflation will be low or negative in the coming months. Inflation is then expected to rise gradually this year and next year.

The first analyst comments after the ECB’s QE program spoke of the program was larger than expected

“The more optimistic end of market expectations,” writes HSBC in a comment on the size of the program.

They felt that However, it is little negative to existed purchases are included in these 60 billion, and that only 20 percent of the purchases will be fully risk-shared.

“After all, is the total package after all, over € 1 trillion which is safely above consensus expectations, “wrote HSBC.

Handelsbanken also thought that the program was a bit larger than expected and even those brought up to the end point of the purchase program is open and depends on how inflation develops.

Danish central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by another 15 basis points to 0.35 percent after ECB slips. Prior Speculation was at a cut of 10 basis points, after Monday’s unexpected cut of 15 points.

Central bank spokesperson Karsten Biltoft assured that Danmarks Nationalbank has the necessary tools and “lots of crowns” for to defend the peg against the euro.

Michel Bostrom, chief analyst Danske Bank does not believe that the Governing slips affecting the Riksbank’s actions going forward in any significant way.

“There must be see how the crown develops and how Swedish inflation expectations evolve. If the crown would be enhanced dramatically or if inflation or wage expectations would collapse into the basement then position be different,” he told the news agency Direkt .

Erica Blomgren, chief strategist at SEB, in fact, that the Governing measures will increase pressure on the Bank of Norway and that a rate cut of 25 basis points in March is priced into, Bloomberg News reported .

At Swedish closing euro traded at 1.146 against the dollar, down from 1,164 at the same time the day before and from 1.162 just before the QE announcement. As a minimum, the euro was down to 1,145.

The dollar was stable around 117: 5 against the yen.

The crown has days been 10 cents stronger at 9.35 against the euro and weakened by over 3 cents to 8.15 against the dollar.

Europe rates indicated some points up before Mario Draghi’s press conference, but the upturn were dug out and turned to a decline in line with the ECB president spoke.

At Swedish closing was the German ten-year rate down 5 basis points to 0.45 percent, from Swedish closing day before while the Swedish equivalent closed 2 points lower at 0.76 percent.

Here at home, carrying SCB in the morning that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.0 percent in December, while the number employed increased by 83,000 persons in the annual rate, the labor force increased by 63,000 persons and the number of hours worked increased by 1.8 percent.

“It has been pretty consistently for a while now that the labor market continues to improve and it is striking how often the statistics have surprised to the upside, “said SBAB’s chief economist Tor Borg Direkt.

But the improved labor market is not likely to get any bigger impact on the Riksbank, which is focused on inflation.

“For the Riksbank is the inflation that applies and it is low and will drop even more because of the oil price. This upsets’s not Riksbank, “he said.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate averaged 7.81 percent in the fourth quarter, the Riksbank’s latest forecast of 7.85 percent. For the first quarter track Riksbank a decline to 7.76 percent.

US interest rates followed first the European interest rates down, but turned back up with ten-year rate nine points higher than at the Swedish closing days prior to 0.87 percent.

In the afternoon showed statistics that the number of newly registered unemployed fell to 307,000 last week, slightly less than expected, while the FHFA home price index contrast, rose 0.8 percent in November, more than expected +0.3 percent.

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