Swedish GDP is estimated to have risen by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter in 2014, GDP is expected to have risen by 3.7 percent.
According to the SME Direkt survey of eleven analysts. Forecast range in the survey ranging between 0.6 and 1.4 percent on a quarterly basis.
The Riksbank’s forecast in February, based on seasonally adjusted data, suggested that GDP would have risen 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared with fourth quarter of 2014.
GDP for the third quarter rose 0.8 percent compared with the previous quarter, and 3.9 percent compared with the same quarter the year before. The consensus forecast from SME Direkt then pointed toward +0.4 percent and +3.4 percent.
Consumption and investment contributed most to the rise third quarter, while inventories and foreign trade went down.
Swedbank sees GDP growth of 3.5 percent in annualized terms. They note that since the end of 2014 has seen a strong Swedish economy, where especially the domestic economy contributed while net exports were neutral. Exports have recovered, but the strong domestic recovery of investment and consumption while driving up imports.
The activity lasts fourth quarter, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. The strength of household consumption was sustained by an expected rise of 1.2 percent in the quarter. Low housing consumption in the wake of low interest rates and warm weather dampens while car sales and retail sales went well, especially for groceries and furniture. Consumption is also supported by the strong leading to higher disposable incomes. In addition, interest rates have been low while energy prices have fallen sharply.
Public consumption is rising as a result primarily of the increased refugee immigration, but at a lower pace than assumed in January.
housing investment continues to rise, driven by more apartment starts. Economic Tendency Survey shows optimism among construction companies.
In other business, the main investment projects in the automotive industry that lift. In addition, a positive service production while efforts are made in local governments.
Statistics on stocks of finished goods shows reductions in the fourth quarter, which will dampen growth while also suggesting continued strong sales activity.
The Swedish exports remain sluggish, although export orders improved. Increased domestic demand will sustain imports, limiting the growth contribution from net exports, writes Swedbank.
Nordea believes that the rate of growth may have slowed slightly to percent in the fourth quarter, but on the other hand, the third quarter have been revised up slightly. The expected annualized GDP growth of 3.7 percent, down from 4.2 percent in the third quarter.
They note that a key reason for that growth accelerated in 2015, exports rose after several years of weakness. The increase in investment has expanded and household consumption continued to expand at a healthy pace.
Two factors stand out in the fourth quarter. First, the hours worked in the state increased by 5 per cent a year, most likely as a consequence of the influx of refugees. Immigration is likely to increase government consumption and GDP in coming quarters.
The other is that the growth rate of fixed investment and imports of services probably slowed down when there was a peak in the research and development (purchased from abroad) in the fourth quarter of 2014.
the bearings for the third quarter and revised up which means that GDP growth in the third quarter was higher than previously assumed. Now expected to partially decline in the fourth quarter, which will dampen growth in the quarterly rate.
The slowdown fourth quarter is therefore a high level and there is no doubt that the economy is booming, which will lead to bottlenecks that hamper growth in 2016.
Nordea’s forecast is largely in line with the Riksbank’s.
“the strong economy begins to affect the Riksbank as it is increasingly evident that the low inflation is not due to any problem in the Swedish economy. the robust growth also means a rise in domestic inflation is more likely, “writes Nordea in a market letter.
Statistics publishes national accounts for the fourth quarter of Monday, 29 February, at 9:30.
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