Free-for Iranian contract – helagotland.se

Free-for Iranian contract – helagotland.se

Iran has quickly gone from being described as an enemy with nuclear ambitions to a potential partner in the war against extremist movement, the Islamic State (IS) and a potential challenger to Russia as the EU’s main gas supplier.

The transformation coincides with a marked increase in the Swedish business with Iran, which has accelerated since certain exceptions from sanctions against the country were introduced in January this year. The exceptions were extended last summer and now runs to 24 November.

Up until now this year, some 80 applications for advance notice of export deals to Iran received. Last year we had around 40, said Daniel North, Operations Manager at Inspectorate of Strategic Products (ISP).

The ISP is the spider in the web with regard to control of the Swedish companies follow the sanctions.

Almost doubled

Exports to Iran are far from the levels of 6-7 billion per year prior to the tighter sanctions 2012th But you compare the first half of this year with the same period last year, the value nearly doubled, from 426 million to 815 million, according to the Board of Trade.

Robert Sundqvist has seven years fluctuated between Tehran and Stockholm, including Scandinavian-Iranian Chamber of Commerce. He believes in a groundbreaking agreement in the fall and expects to Swedish trade with Iran, which could be twice as large as it was before 2012.

That would change the whole playing field in the Middle East, geopolitically. But above all economical for Iran, with a market of 78 million people, he says.

He adds that Swedish companies now look unprepared out compared to European competitors.

Highly skilled and low-paid

Iran’s strength is based on a well-educated and low-paid population and the country has among the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas. Besides the energy sector is tourism good for, according to Sundqvist. He also believe in the auto industry and big business for the Swedish heavyweights such as Ericsson, Atlas Copco, SKF and Volvo.

Sanctions expert Matthew Kroenig, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University in Washington DC, alarm, however, over-optimism.

-Risken are that today’s investments can not be recouped, he says.

He sees a 60 percent probability of “status quo”, new rounds of talks and maintained sanctions. And the second most likely scenario, with 30 percent probability, is not a breakthrough, but rather a grinding halt, according to Kroenig.

Iran is expected in that case resume its nuclear program fully and Western powers would probably respond with even tougher penalties . The danger lies when the direction that Iran eventually gain access to nuclear weapons, and in such a position excludes Kroenig not to the United States and / or Israel carries out direct attacks against installations inside Iran.