25 years of misery is no reason for celebration “- Swedish Dagbladet

Ukraine celebrated its 25th anniversary as an independent nation last week. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP

Two-year bloody Civil War, increasingly more heated tone from Moscow if it annexed the Crimea and a miljardhål budget characterizes the situation .

– What is there to celebrate? 25 years of misery is no reason for celebration, says an elderly Ukrainian woman in a square in Slavyansk to the newspaper The Guardian.

The need for IMF money, which would have been paid already a year ago, big. Outwardly, the IMF has said no to payments on the grounds that Ukraine has not received an electronic system to record key political leaders’ assets and income in place.

Behind this, to discern a large dissatisfaction with the handling of the widespread corruption and halting reforms of the pension and tax system, according to Andreas Schwabe, following the development as an economist at the Austrian Raiffeisen Bank International.

If the IMF loan is not paid soon can the government in Kiev forced to postpone some pension and salary payments.

– It would not surprise me if something like that happens, says Schwabe.

the implications are difficult to predict. But the government has an acute crisis since last spring, and a fragile parliamentary support. The nightmare for President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman would be an election where discontent with the austerity and energy price increases – forced out of Porosjenkos-Western line – hit back.

– Everything is possible in the Ukrainian politics, says Schwabe.

An agreement on debt relief from 2015, lift off interest payments for three years. Additionally counts most with future IMF disbursements. The acute risk of state bankruptcy is why – despite the budget hole of 120 billion hryvnia (about 40 billion) – is not imminent.

– The great challenge for the future is to make Ukraine more like a Western country, with legal certainty and a better investment climate, says Schwabe.

at the same time he looks in 5-10 years a normalized relationship with Russia that more likely than an EU or NATO membership for Ukraine.

– Though it is very difficult. It depends on what Russia does too. And in the coming years, we can foresee, it is not possible.