You can continue to be sluggish for world trade. Over the past three years, the trade has grown more slowly than expected with only an average of 2.4 percent. The inertia is expected to continue this year, but it is pointing slightly upwards. World trade in goods is forecast to grow by 3.3 percent in 2015 – a slight increase from 2.8 percent in 2014. During the next year is expected to trade to grow by 4 percent.
Despite this weak upward curve is the growth of world trade significantly below the annual average of 5.1 percent since 1990. Before the financial crisis, growth in the full 6 percent.
– Only once since World War II, the growth of world trade has been so weak , from 1980 to 1984. However, the period following the oil shock and the global recession of 1980-81. In contrast, today’s weak growth occurred during an economic expansion time, said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo at a press conference in Geneva on Tuesday.
WTO Director believes to world trade growth has been disappointing in recent years.
– It is mainly due to sluggish GDP growth after the financial crisis, but also other factors. However, we expect that trading will slowly recover. But the fragile economic growth and continued geopolitical tensions could derail the forecast said Roberto Azevedo.
The reasons for the tough growth of world trade, as I said several. Reduced GDP growth in emerging economies is one reason, uneven economic recovery in developing countries another. Increased geopolitical tensions also helps to increase trade by myrsteg. Among these is the crisis in Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East, as well as natural phenomena that an unusually harsh winter in the United States.
It collapsed oil prices (down by 47 percent between July 15 and December 31 last year) may also have played a certain role. Imports have fallen in oil-exporting countries, but on the other hand, demand has increased in the oil-importing countries.
What is it that most worries the WTO chief, and threatens stronger growth of world trade?
– It is really a little bit of everything. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, natural disasters and Ebola outbreak in West Africa gives cause for concern. The reduced growth in emerging countries, difficulties in European economies and falling commodity prices are second storm clouds. All this has a destabilizing effect on world trade. The predictability required for good growth is now not there, said Roberto Azevedo.
Another uncertainty is the growth in China is slowing. The country’s GDP grew by just 7.4 percent last year, the lowest in 24 years, and this is believed to affect the growth of world trade. The economic situation in Europe is also problematic, since unemployment is still revolves around 9.8 percent and the Greek crisis is not over, warns WTO.
But Roberto Azevedo stresses that “even if world trade fragile we are not powerless in the face of this bleak situation. “
– Trade can be a powerful instrument to get started economic growth and development. By reducing protectionism and increase market access, the government can boost trade, providing opportunities for all. Bali agreement was an important step forward, and this summer we aim to develop a work program to continue the Doha Round, said Azevedo.
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