Disappointment in GDP – Dagens Industri

Updated 2016-07-29 12:12. Published 2016-07-29 12:11

The Swedish growth landed at 0, 3 percent in the second quarter compared with the first. This meant that the growth rate was only half as strong as market expectations of 0.6 per cent and the Riksbank’s forecast of 0.7 percent.

Tillväxtbesvikelsen sent it Swedish crown to its weakest level against the euro in a year as more now expect the central bank will have to maintain an expansionary monetary policy even further. Against the euro, the crown was recorded just under 9.60 and against the dollar to more than 8.60 – the weakest level since before the turn of the year – after the statistics.

compared with the first quarter of 2015, growth was 3.1 percent. Although it is still a decent speed show Friday’s figures show that the economy has shifted down clearly compared to last year, when growth averaged about 1 percent per quarter and more than 4 percent for the year.

Even compared to at the beginning of this year showed the GDP statistics of a slowdown – only public consumption grew at a faster pace in the second quarter than at the beginning of 2016. Private consumption is also strong but dropped as expected momentum after being rushed forward unsustainably fast .

On account was disappointing investments stagnated in the second quarter. The companies built while less inventory than expected – something that does not need to be negative from a growth point forward. Exports also went weak, and net exports pulled down the growth rate is a few tenths of a percent.

exports hard to take off again can be seen in the light of the appreciation in the second half of 2015, but also in the wake of the continued faltering global developments. On Friday also released figures showed that eurozone countries slowed in the second quarter. The nineteen countries that make up Sweden’s most important export market grew by only 0.3 percent compared with the first quarter, half as fast as in the beginning of the year, with just 1.6 percent compared with the same period in 2015.

the Swedish tillväxtbesvikelsen in combination with the tensions between Sweden and abroad is more than enough to give the Riksbank headache for the next rate decision on 7 september. The Riksbank will probably not exacerbate monetary policy more but somehow the central bank must still take into account the new figures. It will probably be the first action to move forward the first expected rate hike further. Last Riksbank anticipated that interest rates would start to rise slowly during the second half of 2017.

As onions on Governor salmon is Friday’s Swedish GDP figure additionally an unusually uncertain, such as the so-called fast estimate is based on a thinner substrate than usual and often revised more. Riksbank must still make its new forecasts and take up his new interest rate decision before the updated GDP figure published in mid-September.