Fingerprint: ABG Sundal recommend sales – looks huge downside – Business Wire

Fingerprint Cards may have a lasting market share of 5-10 percent, a fraction of the guidance for 2016 of 50-70 percent, in line with competition from not only Qualcomm but “an army of Asian copycats’ as Goodix / Mediatek, Silead, EgisTec, Elan Microsystems, Focal Tech, etc.

It writes ABG Sundal Collier in the 161-page analysis of Fingerprint authored by telecom analyst Per Lindberg.

“The question is not if, but when, FPC’s hegemony in China will be decimated, “it is said, among other things, from the investment bank, which emphasizes that the analysis addressed only to long-term investors focused on fundamentals.

Founded in reliance on superior products and high entry thresholds, believe in other than the declining market share of a company with almost 100 percent market goes against all human logic, called it forth.

ABG’s base scenario implies a sustained operating margin (EBIT) of “decent” 8 percent of 10 percent of the market. The EBIT margin was 29.9 percent in 2015. Revenues are predicted to be around 2 billion in ten years, the estimated 2.829 billion crowns last year, 5.9 billion, according to the ABG’s estimates for 2016 and 4.4 billion years thereafter.

Fingerprints own revenue forecast is higher, and predicts revenues of between 6.5 and 8.5 billion in 2016, following 1.5 billion during January-September 2015th

Earnings per share forecast in the baseline scenario analysis almost managed to double to SEK 21 in 2016 compared with SEK 12 in 2015, then back to the 2 crowns from 2020 by SEK 11, 2017.

This brings the bank to a price target of $ 40 per share, but the probability-weighted average of brighter scenarios ports ABG 200 crowns. The best scenario, which are assigned a 5 percent probability the base scenario 80 percent, implies a de facto monopoly on the technology, sales / profit of 8 and 1.6 billion in the mid-2020s, and a market capitalization of $ 1.450 per share .

Fingerprint Cards share price was down more than 7 percent to 393 kronor at 10 am on Thursday. The share was then Stockholm Stock Exchange’s clear most traded shares, accounting for about a quarter of sales.

Previously, Carnegie and Norwegian Arctic Securities official monitoring of Fingerprint Cards.