ESV small plus in public finances – Business World

     Magdalena Andersson (S), Swedish Finance Minister. Photo: All over the press
     

Financial Management Authority (ESV) has submitted revised forecasts of the Swedish public finances and the Swedish central government budget. The update expects the balances of public finances in general be similar to the June forecast. Some revisions are positive and the other negative, but overall they are limited.

For the Treasury made a brighter assessment for the next few years than previously forecast, but a slightly gloomier ditto on a few years.

“For the first time since 2009 there will be a surplus in public finances this year. in light of the strong economy and taxes have been increased by over 30 billion, however, the surplus small. the surplus is not greater is due to soaring costs, as a result of the large refugee reception last year. the high spending will remain next year, and net lending will be negative, “according to National financial.

Despite the fact that savings are strengthened in subsequent years can not be reached surplus target. The ceiling explained, however, by a good margin every year, assessing authority.

Swedish GDP growth is predicted to be calendar-adjusted 3.2 percent in 2016, according to the authority. In June, the forecast was 3.4 percent. In 2017 GDP growth forecast to be 2.1 percent.

“The strong growth means that resource utilization is higher than normal. While employment continues to increase much.

Increasing difficulty to find staff with the right skills are contributing to dampen both employment growth and GDP going forward, “reasoned the report.

the National Financial expect the Swedish central government budget balance amounted to -33 billion in 2015 , the same assessment as in June. 2016 assessed the level end up +41 million (+36) 2017 +13 billion (+3) and 2018 + 21 billion (+22). For 2019 predicted a surplus of SEK 58 billion (+63), followed by +85 billion in 2020 (+88).

“State budget balance is significantly better than the financial savings. Almost all of the difference is due to the accrual of taxes, where a large part of the temporary strong capital taxes last year paid this year, “it is stated.

ESV estimates that the general government financial balance, therefore, the country’s budget balance was -2 billion in 2015 ( -2). For 2016 it is predicted to be +2 billion (+3), for the years 2017 -13 million (-16), the 2018 -1 billion (+3). For 2019 predicted a budget balance of +23 billion (+28) and +59 2 020 billion (+57).

Tax revenues are expected to increase by 4.9 percent this year.

“taxes on labor increases due largely to the strong growth in the economy and tax increases of more than 30 billion.

capital taxes decreases, however, when households’ capital gains and corporate taxes were temporarily high last year,” says the ESV.

Next year capital taxes continue to decline, partly due to the roof of the deferred amount from the sale of housing dropped. Other taxes increase more slowly than in years when economic growth is not as strong, it is predicted.

The national debt and the so-called Maastricht debt falling as a proportion of GDP throughout the forecast period. In the short term this is mainly due to strong GDP growth and in the longer term, primarily due to growing budget surplus, according to the National Financial.