Italy’s and Austria’s election keeps markets on the gridiron. Europe’s protracted banking crisis and eurosamarbetets future is at stake, according to bankekonomer.
Italy hold on Sunday a referendum on a reform of the constitution, and Austria choose a president with mostly ceremonial powers. But among the observers viewed the elections as a kind of indirect förtroendeomröstningar about the EUROPEAN union.
Above all, Italy’s elections have given the market skrämselhicka. The reformivrige prime minister Matteo Renzi had a small disadvantage when the polls were closed in mid-november.
Matteo Renzis government wants to change the constitution to increase government margin of manoeuvre, with a view to speed up economic reform.
the Majority of bills proposed have been given only by the lower house of parliament, and not, as is currently also in the house of lords the Senate.
In combination with a previous amendment of the electoral law, which shall secure the majority for the largest party at parliamentary elections, would the government be strengthened considerably at the parliament’s expense.
he Loses, he has said that he will resign. Markets prissatte on Friday, the entire 70% probability of the government’s line voted down, according to Swedbank.
Austria’s presidential election is not expected to have any impact on the market. But a win for the högerpopulisten Norbert Hofer, who lead less than in measurements, it means further success for protectionism and xenophobic forces.
A no-win in Italy to prepare the way for the crisis in government and a new election where the EU-hostile Femstjärnerörelsens Beppe Grillo can bring home the victory. With Femstjärnerörelsen in power opens up a scenario where the EU’s third largest economy is beginning to act to leave the euro zone.
Beppe Irons variegated populiströrelse have staked everything on that trap Matteo Renzi with a ‘ no ‘ victory on Sunday and is in the measurements already very close to becoming Italy’s largest party.
the bank’s räntestrateg Pär Magnusson traces the rowdy markets when Europe wakes up on Monday after a likely ‘ no ‘ victory.
"We will see more concern for the weak european banks. And a less risk overall."
Falling bank shares, soaring Italian interest rates and a weaker euro is in the cards.
Pär Magnusson points to a no-win paralyzes the management of Italy’s increasingly acute banking crisis.
Uncertainty in regeringsfrågan and, by extension, questions about Italy’s view on euromedlemskapet flare up at the same time as banks start to get in a hurry to fill the large black hole in its capital adequacy ratio.
The worst krisbanken Monte Dei Paschi, Italy’s third largest, has not yet shaken up the 4 billion, corresponding to sek 39 billion, which the European central bank ECB required prior to the end of the year.
"In a location with so much uncertainty. Who then becomes eager to put in billions of euro in an Italian bank?", says Pär Magnusson.
Fail Italian banks, awaiting the first banking crisis in EMU:new framework in which the share – and bondholders should take the hit before the state comes to the rescue, warns Pär Magnusson.
"When will probably the banks ‘ borrowing rates to rise a lot. You become afraid to lend money to banks. Then rises in turn, interest rates generally, and we get a tightening, which could push Europe into recession. The ECB are terrified of this."
market concerns for a ‘ no ‘ victory has during the week received Italian interest rates rise sharply, but on Friday were relaxed rise slightly.
"the Concern is still there, it was adjudged enough just to have gone a little too far," said Nordea chief economist Annika Winsth.
She considers victory for the ‘ no ‘ side, in principle, already is inprisad and will not give any dramatic reactions by the markets on Monday.
the Risk with Sunday’s elections is more long-term, consider Annika Winsth. If they give a push for populism in Europe as a whole.
"Not at least Marine Le Pen can get further downwind in the far more crucial presidential elections in France next year."
After the Donald Trumps election, stock markets have unexpectedly taken a jump for joy, but it takes place in a strong american economy while Europe’s economic situation is much more fragile, ” she points out.
"the Market will definitely not appreciate the number of governments driven by the euro scepticism and protectionism."
SEB’s chief economist Robert Bergqvist notes that feared marknadsstormar foregone on the unexpected outcomes in both the brexitomröstningen as the U.S. presidential election.
"the Market earlier in the year, not reacted the way you thought it would. So there is a certain humility in the face of how the market will react if it gets a no in Italy."
He agrees with Pär Magnusson that limping banks is an achilles heel for both Italy other euro area countries at a new Italian governmental crisis. At the same time have the ECB since the euro crisis got more rescue mechanisms in place for banks that are threatened by genomklappning, he points out.
"There is a safety net. We estimate that the euro zone has the tools to deal with such a situation."
Depart Matteo Renzis government will begin a process where alternatives are government reshuffle, a new election within half a year, or to a technocratic expeditionsregering takes over until the next regular election in 2018.
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