When the 2016 exchange to summarize, you can look back on several geopolitical events that shocked the world.
In June, voted the Uk to leave the EU, and in november chose the united states Donald Trump for their next president. Events that according to opinion polls and experts in many respects behaved unlikely in advance.
But despite the unexpected outputs, the market reacted to not excessively negative. Rather on the contrary.
– 2016 has been characterised by a sharp increase in political risk. But the stock market damaged by these events rather quickly. Brexit had not very great influence on the world economy, the british pound fell, and saved thus the stock market, ” says Joakim Bornold, sparekonom at Nordnet.
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In the case of the Donald Trumps of victory in the u.s. presidential election mean Joakim Bornold to the last four years in the u.s. policy played a major role.
many people forget is that the republicans gained a majority in congress and the senate. So, it has not been during the last few years when Obama had a hard time to get through their budgets. It, combined with a strong world economy, provides a stability that the stock market always appreciates, ” he says.
“The Russian bear woke up to life”
But what are the markets that have benefited the most from the strong stock market in 2016?
According to Joakim Bornold may you look to the east to find this year’s big winner.
Russia’s development is most interesting because it has been a bad market in several years time. But in the year they received the support of raw materials and oil, which made the Russian bear woke up to life. The risk in the country fell during 2016, it will also contribute to the nice developments. The same can be said of Brazil, who also had a good year, ” he says and continues.
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– at the same time is one of the big losers, actually, Denmark. The ports a good bit down, much as the pharmaceutical industry has had a tough year. The Danish pharmaceutical industry is the largest in the Nordic region, but has had it tough due to the strong price pressure from the state.
“Looks good for the 2017″
When the 2016 goes to 2017, remains to a large extent the political risk that characterized the past year.
In april, the presidential election is held in France, where the far-right National front with Marine Le Pen in the tip is stronger than ever.
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Joakim Bornold mean, however, that one should not draw too far-reaching conclusions on such events.
– They are hard to put a price on. There is a lot of talk, but unclear how it affects the stock market. The fundamentals look pretty good for next year, everything is about the companies to be able to deliver the expected benefits and 2017 can be the first year in a long time that it actually happens, ” he says.
Tip: “move the boat”
the past Year, in sparväg been marked by strong global funds, much because of the weakness of the Swedish krona. But a continued focus on this can be risky.
– The effect that one should not expect even the next year. When the krona strengthens, it will knock against the funds. Many know enough not to it, but the pendulum will strike back. I myself have chosen to center my savings around Sweden precisely because of this, ” he says and continues.
– Otherwise, is very much about to be prepared. The general tip is usually to sit still in the boat, but it is best if one moves a little in the boat before it starts to swing, which it certainly will do. Now during the jullediga days, it may be good to look over their portfolio so that one’s savings is the right distributed.
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