Nordea raises the recommendation of the Fingerprint Cards to keep from the sell. Riktkursen raised by a penny to 71 sek.
in Addition to the substantial cuts of the intäktsestimaten for the current and next quarter, as customers draw down on their now large stocks, see Nordea no reason to revise its ursprungsscenario: a long-term operating margin of 25%, which is typical for the market leader in the semiconductor industry, and the stable revenues of eur 7.5 billion.
Revenue and lönsamhetsantagandena justify according to the bank, an EV/sales multiple (skuldjusterat enterprise value/sales) of 2.5, which is what shares are now traded.
The de-stocking that Fingerprintledningen gave huvudskulden for the profit warning, according to the analysis, in line with Nordea’s previous remarks on the volumes with the sensorchipleverantörerna have exceeded those of the next links in the value chain, modulpartners.
“We had expected that this reduction would affect the revenues in the first half of 2017 for the FPC, but now when the de-stocking started earlier in the modulpartners on the basis of an overall inventory build-up of smartphones, it is happening already now,” called it.
Nordea also points out, speaking of the different assumptions on average selling prices and marknadsstorlekar as the Fingerprint left in the capital markets day, the company lowered its forecast for the number of sensor units in 2018 to 1.5 from 1.7 billion. This seems, says the bank, primarily due to lower expectations on the smart card.
Carnegie lowers riktkursen
Fingerprint Cards seem to lose market share faster than Carnegie had predicted, and the average selling prices also drops more than expected.
The writing by in a comment to Thursday’s profit warning and capital markets, where riktkursen is lowered to 51 from 61 sek and the recommendation to sell repeated.
Fingerprint is losing according to the Carnegie a significant share of the market of storkunden Huawei – whose sweden director Kenneth Fredriksen was on the scene during the capital markets day and paid tribute to their Swedish supplier to Synaptics.
FPC-guided tour for 2017 on revenue of 7.5-9.5 billion at risk to land in a disappointment, including when it is based on assumptions about double-digit share of the market for so-called under-glass sensors with high average selling prices – sensors, which however so far is at an early stage of development with high manufacturing costs and low performance.
the Company’s ambition to maintain its more than 50-percent market share by taking on more phones in the lower price risks according to the Carnegie to reduce the gross margin to over 40 percent (to compare with FPC’s guidance on a long-term gross margin of 40-45%, a level of 49 per cent during January-september of this year, and guided during its capital markets day on a couple of points probable decline in 2017).
The new riktkursen 51 sek, 25 percent below Thursday’s closing price, based on an expected earnings per share of 6: $ 20 for 2017, and that investors are not assumed to be willing to pay more than 8 times, this in a company with declining profitability.
the Pareto lowers riktkursen
Pareto Securities lowers riktkursen for the Fingerprint Cards to 90 sek from sek 105. Recommendation buy be repeated.
Handelsbanken cuts köprek
Handelsbanken Capital Markets is lowering its recommendation for the Fingerprint Cards to increase, from the previous purchase.
Handelsbanken estimates that the Fingerprints greatly reduced guidance for the year 2016 indicates that the company’s market share peaked in the third quarter of this year, and not in the fourth as the bank had anticipated.
Handelsbanken lowers its forecast for Fingerprints market share to 44 per cent (51 per cent) by 2017 and to 42 per cent (48 per cent) in 2018, then trend of “dual sourcing” seems to be spreading faster than the bank previously expected.
the Positive elements of the capital markets day yesterday, according to the SHB, was the guided tour around the PC, IoT (Internet of Things) and smartcards, as well as the promising cooperation with Oberthur Technologies. Also Fingerprints the development of sensors that can be mounted in and under the glass is promising, according to Handelsbanken.
Among the negative for 2017, is that the Fingerprint anticipate that the average selling price (ASP) will drop by 15-20%, and that the only counts with an “acceptable” rate of return in the sensors that are mounted under glass.
Handelsbanken reduced its earnings estimates for 2017-18 by 15 to 20 percent, based on the more pessimistic outlook for the Fingerprints of the market share, average price and gross margins.
SEB wants to analyze more
Fingerprint Cards prognossänkning will probably lead to SEB to make “significant reductions” of forecasts and price target.
It writes SEB in a comment the day after the company’s capital markets day.
SEB’s analysts to dig deeper into the information from the company before the estimates are updated, but putting forward a number of a couple of different värderingsscenarion on Friday, including riktkursen would be in the range of 66-89 crowns based on the company’s guidance for 2017 and applying a p/e ratio of 10. Would you put the p/e ratio to 12 instead, ports riktkursintervallet on 79-107 kronor, according to the bank.
SEB’s price target is currently at 142 sek, more than twice as high as the current course.
the Bank asks in its analysis of the warning for 2016 should be seen as a temporary phenomenon or something more permanent.
“When we have had time to analyze the alert in detail, we will have more on the feet to determine if we need to change our positive attitude to share,” writes SEB.
Share continues to back
Shares fell 10 percent on Thursday and closed at 67:75 kronor, from to have closed on 75:25 crowns the day before.
the Course went down when the trade began on Friday. Shortly after börsöppning traded share price of around 65 sek, a decline of just over 3.5 per cent.
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