Real estate brokers’ long-term expectations pointing to average price increases for housing by about 5 percent per year over the next five years. It would mean a slowdown compared to the last five years of development, but still well above what other prices, wages and incomes are likely to increase.
It shows SBAB’s estate agents barometer, based on a survey of 220 real estate agents in the three metropolitan areas.
According SBAB to the inflated expectations of future price increases be a sign of an overheated housing market. The long-term price expectations are at the top of what is reasonable, indicating that the risks have increased.
“The expectations might seem modest, given the recent violent price increases. But they are most definitely on the high side of what which may be assessed as reasonable. The warning light flashes might not red yet but it is certainly not green either, “says Tor Borg, chief economist SBAB.
The long-term price expectations are highest in the Gothenburg region, close to seven percent a year, compared with around 5 per cent in Stockholm and Malmö. It means that prices in Gothenburg is expected to increase more than 10 percent faster in five years.
“If any metropolitan region should be identified as more vulnerable than others so it is probably Gothenburg. Expectations of future price increases are more inflated where than in Stockholm and Malmö “, says Tor Borg.
Brokerage survey done by CMA Research on behalf of SBAB Bank.
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