Economists disagree: Crisis on time or not? – Aftonbladet

Sweden is heading for a deep economic crisis, warns the two economists for the DI Debate.

“If we look a few years ahead, Sweden can be in a crisis worse than the crisis in the 1990s, “they write.

– I think they paint fan on the wall. There are great challenges, but not a great risk of a crash, says Annika Alexius, a professor of economics at Stockholm University.

The Swedish economy is growing rapidly right now , with a growth rate of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This high figure is increased consumption, high export figures and public stimulus as a result of the refugee wave.

But the sky towering storm clouds up. It believes in any case two associate professors of economics in a debattartikler in Dagens Industri. Fredrik N.G. Andersson and Andreas Bergh writes with Anders Olshov, director and founder of the think tank Intelligence Watch, the situation is worrying like that of Spain, Portugal and Ireland in the years before the financial crisis of 2008.

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“the first imbalance is the rapid growth of household debt that is expected to reach over 180 percent of disposable income shortly. Unlike other countries, the debt level in Sweden has risen since 2008. The debts have almost doubled in relation to household income since 1995, “writes the three.

” Creepy likely “

Apart about imbalances in the economy point the authors also on the record number of refugees Sweden received and that the costs of integration because of the increased inflow in 2015 is likely to be greater than previous studies estimated.

“it’s been so far that a future deep crisis seems uncomfortably plausible. With the right measures can be mitigated, but hardly avoided completely, “writes Andersson Bergh Olshov.

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“Paints fan on the wall”

One who does not agree with the message of the debate article is Annika Alexius, a professor of economics at Stockholm University. She says that there is no imminent risk of a financial crash.

– I think they paint fan on the wall, they pick out the worst possible scenario at every point they take up in the article. Certainly, there are challenges, but no significant risk of crash is not, says Alexius and develops:

– The politicians are still well aware of the need to increase efforts for integration. Government debt in Sweden is extremely low and we can afford to pay a little more to integrate refugees.

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“Have a good economy”

Regarding concerns about a decline in the growth of the Act says Annika Alexius that such is desirable.

– More than 2 percent growth is desirable, not faster or slower . Now we 4.5-5 percent, which of course is temporary, she says, and concludes:

– Households have good finances and banks are stable. There are challenges, but challenges and to an apparent crash is going on is not the same.

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