Politicians control exchange summer – Express

Will join the stock market go up or down in the summer?

The most likely answer is both.

To hope for a peaceful and stable trend over the summer is enough to hope too much.

in contrast, expects the experts to the next few weeks, four central bank statement puts a substantial effect on the market.

the Bank of England may implement a zero interest rate

the research firm IHS Global Insight expects that the British central bank may cut interest rates from 0.5 percent to 0.25 or even 0 percent.

– A rate cut by 25 or 50 points does not really impact the real economy. But it is still something that goes in the right direction and that the margin can help to strengthen growth. It is obviously an important signal, says SEB currency strategist and England Expert, Richard Falk Pour.

Riksbank July 6

The National Bank is the first, featuring its rate decision on 6 July.

Richard Falk Pour expect the Riksbank will not introduce anything new, neither in terms of interest rate forecasts or measures.

Annika Winsth, chief economist Nordea:

– Our assessment is that the Riksbank will not do anything, but other than that it will signal that it will take even longer before raising interest rates.

the Bank of England July 14

Richard Falk Pour:

– Our assessment is some sort of relief, probably bond purchases.

Annika Winsth:

– the Bank of England teaches pursue a more expansionary monetary policy. It can not be excluded that the lower interest rates now.

The European Central Bank, ECB, July 21

Richard Falk Pour:

– Waiting likely to fall with more forceful action.

Annika Winsth:

– the ECB has already before brexit signaled that it will stimulate more.

Federal Reserve, July 27,

Richard Falk Pour:

– the previous plan to raise interest rates put on hold, possibly to the end of the year.

Annika Winsth:

– for the Fed’s part, I think it will be about the delaying an increase.

Politicians governing publicly summer

But even if central banks will affect the mood in the markets, it is the real power of this year’s stock market summer politicians.

– politicians have right now a lot of influence and the central banks are said to be sensitive to the noises in going and what possible effects it will have on the financial markets, says Annika Winsth.

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– the sensitivity for different data outcomes and initiatives from both politicians and central banks will be greater impact in the future, says Richard Falk Pour.

Doubt that brexit lose

While growing doubts in financial circles that brexit really happens.

in an interview with the German economics magazine Wirtschaftswoche says Klaus Regling, head of the euro zone joint rescue fund ESM, that much can still happen.

– Let’s see if it really becomes a brexit. We are only at the beginning of a very long process. The last word may not have been said yet on the issue, he said according to news agency Six.

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– The past few days, the markets have begun to speculate that it might not be a brexit. Scotland will perhaps put a spoke in the wheel and the left-side lacks a strategy for how the process will be done and who will manage it, says Annika Winsth – and adds:

– Will it really messy political time also affected the stock market . If the EU manages to present a credible plan for how to act, it will be quieter.