N dynasty drama in five primaries leaves continued blurry picture of how the Republican nomination process by an official presidential candidate looks. A heavy factor is that Donald Trump loses Ohio to its governor, John Kasich. The road is all the more direct toward a chaotic Republican convention this summer.
Donald Trump and John Kasich. Photo: AP
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This is the night Republican primary election drama in fast playback:
Donald Trump wins Florida all 99 delegates and also takes home a large part of the other barely 200 at stake in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Trump is now almost half way to the target, the 1237 delegates needed for a majority at the party convention in July.
But Trump loses Ohio’s 66 delegates to the governor, John Kasich, who secures his first primary victory so far and thus saves to remain in the race for the nomination, if only in theory.
Ted Cruz, the Tea Party senator from Texas, winning a handful of delegates but wins no single state.
And so, the Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, whose attempts to become president ended in ignominious defeat in the night when he was forced to end his campaign after losing his own home state to billionaire from New York.
So far, everything is relative simple.
But the picture of how the Republican process to obtain an official candidate looks forward is anything but clear. Donald Trump pulls away from runner Ted Cruz by Tuesday’s primary election, but his battle for the nomination is simultaneously trickier. Among the remaining Republican primaries are six that gives all delegates to the winner, as Florida and Ohio on Tuesday. In addition, there are another six that provide most delegates to the winner, a sort of semi “winner take all”, in addition to a handful of states that distributes delegates proportionally.
Trump’s problem is that the only “winner take all” – Lander is not enough to secure the nomination at the party convention in July. Had he won Ohio so the job had been easier. Now he must, in addition to all the “winner take all” -race, win a few more states where Ted Cruz hopes for victories and where John Kasich will do everything to catch up, as in the remainder of the Midwest, California and the Northeast.
the bottom line is that it is increasingly likely that no candidate reaches 1,237 delegates before the convention. Instead go when Trump, Cruz and possibly Kasich to the Convention in July with the delegates they have and hope for the best.
One of the following options can then become a reality:
• Trump wins after all nomination, after a likely messy convention, by virtue of having the largest number of delegates.
• Cruz and Kasich, which is not normally the såtaste friends, merge at the convention. Along the officers of a higher amount of delegates than Trump, and can thus maneuver him out.
Option two is extremely rare and historical models are given at all for how such a clash occurs. The risk appears too great that the Republican Party so, split in two, when Trump’s supporters are deprived of their seemingly deserted victory. A repeat of the 1968 dramatic and rowdy Democratic convention can not be excluded.
But one factor, yet often overlooked in reporting on the US elections, speaks still for such a “brokered” or “contested convention.”
It is largely of the delegates collected by candidates who already managed to jump off. Marco Rubio, who threw in the towel last night, managed to amass 163 delegates. Jeb Bush adds yet a few delegates. These Republican Party members also travel at the convention, but to have a candidate to vote for the left in the race. Their right to vote is, however, intact, and thus becomes a kind of “super delegates” who can support one or another candidate of one’s head.
This scenario opens up staggering possibilities, but not too likely.
for example, suppose the Ohio Governor John Kasich, with a paltry 129 delegates today after the victory in Ohio, maintains itself and manages to gather additional couple hundred or so delegates in the upcoming primaries. For that, he adds, in a hearing under the table, Marco Rubio 163 and Jeb Bush’s four delegates.
Provided that Ted Cruz do poorly, but still continue to keep the pressure up against Donald Trump, would Kasich able come out as the stronger candidate of the two. And voilà – when a divided convention with a party leadership that neither wants Trump or Cruz as official candidates – so would the Ohio governor to stand as something unbacked winner of the party’s nomination.
Such an outcome is not entirely likely, but after all still possible.
the crack in the US conservative movement appears to be the closest historical depth right now, with the establishment past sprung by both the tea party movement and an elusive group of frustrated Trump voters. The situation is more difficult than ever to predict the outcome of the Republican part of the selection.
In conjunction with the Super Tuesday for a couple of weeks ago when a dozen states went to the primaries concluded a political conservative analyst for SvD that “it is a myth that the nomination is decided in a smoky room” behind closed doors, the quintessential political skumraskeri.
And yet it looks just like the door of the smoky room just opened. Only then turned back with a bang for the Republican Party convention in Cleveland, Ohio, on 18 July.
Number of delegates – Democrats
Number of delegates – Republicans
map: the states that have voted so far
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