Donald Trump and Janet Yellen characterizes the u.s. economy in the years to come.
the high hopes attached to the newly elected president’s campaign promises, while the governor is aiming for the three interest rate increases this year.
controversial fastighetsmagnaten from New York city, Donald Trump, swear, sworn in as president in Washington on January 20.
It is feared the chaos after the election has failed and been replaced with euphoria since the market praised his promised investment and tax cuts in advance and acted up the courses on Wall Street.
But in 2017, it is not enough with only promises for Donald Trump if he is to revive the sluggish growth in the country.
Börstemperatur
Donald Trump is in the united states and throughout the world eye-catcher even in the next year. And Janet Yellen will play a major role for the economy when she has to try to implement the promised interest rate rises.
Main question
There are still many questions around how the united states will be like in Donald Trump’s presidency. The question everyone wants answers to.
Key personnel
About half of the analysts on Wall Street expect the stock market rises moderately, 0-10 per cent, during the next years mainly driven by Donald Trumps campaign promises.
To boost GDP growth, which for some years has been at a standstill over about 1-2 per cent, is the highest priority for the future president and his aides, particularly specialrådgivaren Carl Icahn and finance minister Robert Mnuchin.
Team tools is above all, big tax cuts for businesses, large investments in infrastructure combined with aggressive deregulation of tillväxtdämpande regulations, which was instituted during Obama’s presidency.
the Unemployment rate has fallen steadily in recent years and is below 5 percent. It is expected to continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace, in the coming year, while more people are expected to return to the work force.
the Shortage of labour, especially qualified, are becoming increasingly evident and, as a result of this rises now finally the average salaries.
The next two years is expected wages to rise by almost 4 per cent, compared with 2 per cent in 2016, according to the OECD forecast.
Rising medellöner is something that Janet Yellen has called for during most of the 2016. It is also one of the reasons that the Fed took with its interest rate hike until december.
Now anticipates, however, she, is that inflation takes a little bit of momentum, and promises three interest rate hikes in the year, plus the continued increases up to 2020. So did it also before 2016, when Janet Yellen talked about the four interest rate hikes, but it became known only one.
Janet Yellen and her colleagues have to walk a balancing act this year in order not to kill the budding economic upturn, while the risk of new financial bubbles increases with an excessively soft monetary policy.
"Our decision to raise interest rates shows that we have strong confidence in the U.S. economy that has shown itself to be very resilient in the last few years", commented Janet Yellen this year’s rate hike in december.
Many arrows pointing in the right direction for the moment, however, the risks lurking around the corner becomes all the more.
the Market has already priced in Donald Trump’s promises and decided that the glass is half full. With such a highly valued stock market, it is necessary not much for the glass to suddenly be perceived as half empty instead.
such A psychological volte-face can take place when the investors begin to realize that it is not so easy to implement the promised tax cuts or rule changes and that, above all, take longer time than expected.
Donald Trumps hot in the propensity to invest may also overheat the labour market, with rapidly rising wages and inflation as a result.
It requires in such a case, the clamp-down from Janet Yellen with the rapid increases in interest rates which could stop the rise before it has started properly.
another question mark is how harmful the stronger dollar is for exports. In combination with a multi-speed world, it will be seen in the export earnings during the year.
There is also a risk of increased turbulence on the financial markets when the central bank now wants to start raising interest rates at a faster pace, while Europe in particular continues its strong stimulus and minusränta.
Additional factor concern is the growing foreign debt, which is already above 100% of GDP and will rise substantially because of the tax cuts.
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