Housing on Norrmälarstrand in Stockholm.
When Mäklarstatistik and Valueguard presented their new figures for the development in the Swedish housing market in July, the statistics pointed to the diametrically different directions. “This worries people when prices swing as this sharply back and forth,” says Per-Arne Sandgren, statistics manager at broker statistics, to the business world.
At 7:00 on Friday morning released Mäklarstatistik their figures showed that the prices of condominiums fell by 1 percent in July, speaking to the nation as a whole. The price development in the Greater Stockholm was the same, according Mäklarstatistik.
Two hours later Valueguard released its figures for the same month. According to them, prices of flats rose by 2.9 per cent in July. In Stockholm, the price rise even greater: 3.5 percent.
How can the statistics show so different, there are certainly many who wonder? It depends on the different ways to measure.
The foundation is the same. Both Mäklarstatistik and Valueguard based on sales of condominiums from about 90 percent of all brokered sales.
To get the monthly figure compares Mäklarstatistik a weighted average over a three month period of the previous. For the month of July compared, for example, from April to June 2016, May-July, 2016.
Valueguard their part, comparing July to June. Additionally, they use a so-called hedonic calculation. Simplified, this means that you take into account a number of variables that the apartments’ size, location, floor plan, monthly fee, etc, so that the index is not influenced by the example sold few central apartments a given month. One could say that the index shows the average apartment changed in price from month to month, like the other indices such as the consumer price index.
– Two months ago showed Valueguard numbers on a sharp decline. Now showing their index on a sharp price rise. I do not review their measurement model, but it is not this the underlying housing market works, says Per-Arne Sandgren.
He argues that rather than moving about the natural seasonality.
Valueguard Lars-Erik Ericson believe that July is a doubt month statistically.
– One should interpret the July figures with some caution because they are based on transactions that are made during holiday . We also believe that the introduction of the repayment requirement affected the market, and what we see now may be a rebound of it, he says.
Lars-Erik Ericsson recommends waiting until the housing market started after the summer and see how the price situation has developed until then.
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