– There are both positive and negative effects. The pension system will be stronger, government spending will in the long term to increase, and for pensioners means slightly lower development of the pension, says Ole Settergren, head of research at the Swedish Pensions Agency.
To make this kind of calculation is of course associated with great uncertainties, among other things because you have to assume how many of those immigrants asylum last year to get jobs, and at what salary, for many years. Here the pension authority opted to use statistics from previous years to make its calculations, while one should also remember that calculation, it only applies to the effects of asylum immigration 2016.
As the number of people working will increase, so will the pension be strengthened, therefore, there is more money in the system. It also reduces the risk that the pension brake is applied, the one who makes the list of pensions may be reduced if the system goes into deficit.
However, because the one who is not born in Sweden on average earn less than a person born in Sweden, then the rate of increase in pensions will be lower according to the pension authority’s calculation. It is because the average income, the upward adjustment of pensions are calculated on, will be a bit lower. The effect is expected to be SEK 130 per month by 2040.
Central government expenditure in social security for retirees will increase according to the calculations, since quite a few of those who came here last year will not have time to work long enough and earn as much money that they will cross the border for the guaranteed pension. In 2065 the estimated effect equivalent to a cost increase of 6 percent in the system.
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