The OECD outlook for 2015 has deteriorated significantly – Today’s News

     
     
     
 
 
     
 

     Published today, 10:57
     
 

 
     
     
     

         

                 

The turnaround after the crisis is slower than anticipated. 2015 started weak, especially in the United States, and will take until late 2016 before the global economy reach a normal growth rate. Sweden did, however, better than most developed countries, traces the OECD in the new forecast.

                 
             

         
 
         
         

             
                 
                 
                 

                     

 

The turnaround after the crisis is slower than anticipated. 2015 started weak, especially in the United States, and will take until late 2016 before the global economy reach a normal growth rate. Sweden did, however, better than most developed countries, traces the OECD in the new forecast.

The outlook for 2015 has deteriorated significantly since March, when the OECD published its latest financial statement. This applies particularly in the US, but also Japan and the UK. For euro area countries is expected, however no setbacks and the forecast for France is now better than before.

The world economy is burdened, however, also a slightly slower GDP growth in the emerging countries of China, India and Brazil. Russia is in recession in 2015, but it now looks to not be so prolonged.

 
        
             

     
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in several places, including the United States that had a hard winter, the slowdown was most noticeable in the first quarter. The US economy has subsequently gained momentum again and is expected to come up in the normal GDP growth of nearly three per cent in the second half. The euro countries have by now reached a growth rate of about two percent, which may be seen as decently on their part.

The difference in unemployment, however, remains much higher. The US is expected in the years to come down to 5.5 percent, while the euro countries – despite some decline – still above eleven percent. On both sides of the Atlantic are expected employment situation to improve during in 2016.

OECD chief economist Catherine L Mann is not satisfied and to share the world economy, the low rating of B-. She believes, however, that top rating of A is within reach if all countries make an effort and do the right things, including to drive increased demand leading to higher investment.

Her fear is that the grade may be even lower, because there are several threats to the favorable development. These include the financial situation in the United States with still large deficits, the crisis in Greece, which could soon end up in bankruptcy, uncertainty concerning how Japan will finally emerge from stagnation and financial uncertainty in the emerging countries.

The forecast from the OECD , however, is based on the deal in the coming years is localized. This applies to America’s transition towards a monetary policy with higher interest rates, euro area countries’ recovery from the still ongoing crisis, as well as China’s adjustment to a slower growth rate with reduced imbalances.

There is uncertainty, which also affects the OECD forecast Sweden. The assessment, however, is becoming quite a strong Swedish GDP growth of 2.8 percent this year and 3.0 percent next year, but that unemployment will fall very slowly.

The Riksbank is recommended to continue its stimulus policies until inflation approaching the target of two per cent. But the OECD warns against the Swedish households’ rising indebtedness resulted in rising financial and macroeconomic risks, which require active countermeasures.