Large Banks: now there will be no decrease in July – Dagens Industri

Updated 2015-06-11 11:07. Published 2015-06-11 10:59

Consumer prices rose in May by 0.3 percent from April. Inflation, ie the change on an annualized basis, was 0.1 percent. It shows figures from Statistics Sweden, which was published on Thursday

In terms of the CPIF, that excludes the effects of interest rate changes, and it is dimensions Riksbank watch most, the inflation rate was 1.0 percent in May. It is the highest level since August 2013. The outcome was higher than both the Riksbank and market participants had expected.

Both Nordea and Swedbank change their forecasts for how the Riksbank will act in the interest rate meeting in July.

“May the outcome for inflation reduce the likelihood of further action by the Riksbank. It is a difficult balancing act, but we change our forecast and expect no longer the Riksbank to act at the July meeting (our previous forecast was a fall), “writes Nordea in a market letter.

Swedbank -ekonomerna express themselves in similar terms.

“The probability of Riksbank to cut the repo rate in July has decreased sharply after today’s inflation figures for May. We therefore removed forecast of a rate cut in July and expect instead that interest rates are kept unchanged, “writes Swedbank in a market letter.

Both banks believe However, the Riksbank may be forced to act later. The krona will be crucial.

“The immediate reaction on the inflation outcome was a stronger krona. Therefore, our assessment is that the Riksbank will take measures later this year to ensure the upswing in inflation, “writes Nordea.

Swedbank believes continued soft noises from the Riksbank.

“The risk of new reductions remain, especially on the crown again reach stronger levels,” writes the bank.